Інвестиційні ризики промислового підприємства в умовах війни

Abstract

UA: Дослідження присвячене інвестиційним ризикам промислових підприємств України в умовах війни. Запропоновано класифікацію ризиків (прямі, непрямі, системні) та модель WAR-VaR для їх квантифікації. Проаналізовано кейси провідних підприємств. Розроблено рекомендації щодо мінімізації ризиків шляхом технічних, фінансових та організаційних заходів. Висновки акцентують домінування воєнних ризиків і перспективи застосування штучного інтелекту для їх прогнозування.

EN: The study examines investment risks faced by Ukrainian industrial enterprises during the ongoing full-scale war. A novel risk classification is proposed, comprising direct risks (physical destruction or occupation of assets), indirect risks (supply chain disruptions, energy crises, personnel mobilization), and systemic risks (macroeconomic instability, legal uncertainty, reputational damage). To quantify war-specific uncertainties, an original WARVaR (War-Adjusted Value at Risk) model is developed. This model extends traditional VaR by integrating scenario probabilities derived from Armed Forces reports, satellite imagery, and loss patterns observed from 2022-2025, while applying weighted loss coefficients based on frontline proximity and asset criticality. Case studies of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih ($300 million invested in protective shelters, backup power systems, and rerouting exports via Constanța) and Interpipe ($50 million in mobile modular production units) demonstrate that adaptive measures preserved 70-80 % of operational capacity despite a 65 % output decline industry-wide. A 2024 survey of 50 enterprises reveals that 74 % consider war risks the primary investment barrier, with average payback periods lengthening from 3.5 to 7.2 years. Recommendations are categorized as follows. Technical: localized air-defense systems (NASAMS-type, $1-2 million per battery), renewable microgrids, cloud-based ERP. Financial: specialized war-risk insurance (Lloyd’s coverage up to $100 million), NDF hedging, structured products with military triggers. Organizational: rotating crisis teams, psychological support programs, civil-military partnerships. Conclusions highlight that war risks increase the cost of capital by 20-35 percentage points and dominate traditional factors. Successful cases prove that proactive risk management sustains investability under extreme conditions. Future research should focus on AI-driven real-time risk forecasting, effects of international security guarantees, sectorspecific model extensions, and post-war recovery simulations. The framework offers a comprehensive toolkit for enhancing industrial resilience amid prolonged high-intensity conflict.