Науково-практичний підхід до прогнозування на основі даних детермінованого факторного аналізу

Abstract

UA: В статті викладено результати теоретичного обґрунтування та практичної реалізації науково-практичного підходу до прогнозування ключових показників діяльності підприємства, який базується на використанні даних детермінованого факторного аналізу. Основними результатами зазначеного підходу є підвищення обґрунтованості прогнозів у порівнянні з альтернативними традиційними методами та забезпечення можливості прогнозування впливу динаміки окремих факторів на зміну результативного показника протягом прогнозного періоду, що є критично важливим для прийняття управлінських рішень на таких складних об'єктах, як АТ «Укрзалізниця», в умовах нестабільної економіки.

EN: In today's unstable economy and high uncertainty of the external environment, existing methods for forecasting key performance indicators of enterprises (in particular, such complex objects as JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia") often do not provide the necessary accuracy. In addition, most alternative methods do not allow for effective modeling and quantitative assessment of how changes in individual internal factors will affect the resulting performance indicators in the future. This complicates the process of making informed management decisions. Today, there is no unified methodological approach that would comprehensively take into account both quantitative indicators of the enterprise's performance and qualitative risk and uncertainty factors, which are characteristic of the current unstable state of the Ukrainian economy. This makes it impossible to create stable and adequate forecasts for the long term. The scientific task of solving this problem is to theoretically substantiate and develop a scientific approach to forecasting that integrates the tools of deterministic factor analysis. This allows overcoming the limitations of traditional methods, expanding the possibilities of analyzing cause-and-effect relationships between factors and the performance indicator in dynamics. From a practical point of view, the implementation of the scientific task consists in creating and testing an applied toolkit that ensures increased accuracy of forecast calculations. This allows the management of the enterprise not only to obtain a forecast value, but also to consciously model the impact of the dynamics of individual factors, which is critically important for strategic and operational management in conditions of uncertainty. The article presents the results of the theoretical justification and practical implementation of a scientific and practical approach to forecasting key indicators of the enterprise's activity, which is based on the use of data from deterministic factor analysis. The main results of this approach are to increase the accuracy of forecasts compared to alternative methods and to provide the ability to predict the impact of the dynamics of individual factors on the change in the performance indicator during the forecast period, which is critically important for making management decisions at such complex facilities as JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" in an unstable economy.