Вплив подовження «життєвого циклу» локомотивів на ВВП країни та економіку залізничної галузі

Abstract

UA: У статті розглянуто економічний аспект причинно-наслідкового зв’язку між подовженням «життєвого циклу» локомотивів і зростанням валового внутрішнього продукту (ВВП) країни. Наведено результати досліджень впливу збільшення обсягів вантажних перевезень за рахунок модернізації діючого локомотивного парку на національну макроекономіку. Обґрунтовано економічну доцільність цих інноваційних заходів для підвищення ефективності роботи залізничної галузі в умовах сьогодення. EN: The article describes the economic aspect of the causal relationship between the extension of the «life cycle» of locomotives and the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). It was determined that the main factor inhibiting the development of the railway is the lack of funds, which significantly affects the pace of renewal of the locomotive fleet, which can, in turn, cause the unstable operation of the railway infrastructure. The article examines and substantiates the expediency of using correlation-regression analysis methods to build an economic-mathematical model that adequately determines the impact of the increased volume of freight transportation on the value of the GDP of purchasing power parity (PPP) due to the extension of the «life cycle» of freight locomotives (macroeconomic aspect). We determined the dependence of the value of Ukrainian GDP of the PKS on the volume of freight transportation by domestic wheeled transport. It was established that in the situation under research more than 45 % of the total variability of the value of Ukrainian GDP of the PKS is explained by the change in the total volume of cargo transportation by rail and road transport. The economic interpretation of the model parameters allows us to state that an increase in the volume of freight transportation by 1 unit of cargo leads to an increase in the value of the GDP of the PKS of Ukraine by an average of $ 0.0674. The use of the model suggested in the research made it possible to evaluate a prospective growth of the GDP of the PKS of Ukraine due to the increase in the volume of freight transportation by fifty locomotives. The extension of their service life by five years resulted in the amount of 8,893.7 thousand in US dollars, i.e. $ 1778.3 thousand annually. The study of the economic attractiveness of the development and implementation of the domestic system for monitoring the technical condition of locomotives (industry-economic aspect) for the railway industry led to drawing a reasonable conclusion about the possibility of obtaining a significant increase in the efficiency of the railway. It was established that the development and implementation of domestic systems on fifty locomotives compared to the purchase of foreign-made analogues provides savings of more than 32.6 thousand US dollars.